The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 - Softcover

Joel Kotkin is a senior fellow with the Davenport Institute for Public Policy at Pepperdine University, a research fellow in urban studies at the Reason Public Policy Institute, and a senior fellow with the Milken Institute. He writes a monthly column, "Grass Roots Business," in the Sunday New York Times Money & Business section, and is a contributing editor to the Los Angeles Times Opinion section as well as a columnist for the Los Angeles Business Journal. An active participant in the new economy, he is director of content for Prime Ventures, a high-tech venture-capital firm specializing in new-media and technology ventures. He has written four previous books, including Tribes. He lives in North Hollywood, California.

Kotkin (The City) offers a well-researched—and very sunny—forecast for the American economy, arguing that despite its daunting current difficulties, the U.S. will emerge by midcentury as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history. Nourished by mass immigration and American society's proven adaptability, the country will reign supreme over an industrialized world beset by old age, bitter ethnic conflicts, and erratically functioning economic institutions. Although decreasing social mobility will present a challenge, demographic resources will give the U.S. an edge over its European rivals, which will be constrained by shrinking work forces and rapidly proliferating social welfare commitments. Largely concerned with migration patterns within the U.S., the book also offers a nonpartisan view of America's strengths, identifying both pro-immigration and strongly capitalist policies as sources of its continued prosperity. However, Kotkin tends to gloss over the looming and incontrovertible challenges facing the country and devotes limited space to the long-term consequences posed by the current recession, the rise of India and China, and the resulting competition over diminishing energy resources. Nevertheless, his confidence is well-supported and is a reassuring balm amid the political and economic turmoil of the moment. (Feb.)
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